Feature: Worst Case Scenario

By Joe Courson

In May 2007, Communicator looked at how stations should prepare for an outbreak of Avian Flu in "The Worst Case Scenario" by Joe Courson.  The type of flu we are concerned about today has changed but the need to be prepared is as critical as ever.


Cough. Someone clears his throat. Haaatchooo! There's a sneeze.

Walking through a newsroom, or any office building, you might hear such noises and dismiss them as innocent. But if history repeats itself, the innocent cough or sneeze could become a weapon of mass infection.

A major flu pandemic might happen; it might not. If you want to play the odds, consider betting that we're overdue from a historical perspective. A severe pandemic flu outbreak in 1918-1920 killed as many as 50 million worldwide; outbreaks in 1958 and 1968 were far less devastating but still placed an overwhelming strain on medical services and caused societal disruptions.

No one can predict with certainty if or when such a pandemic could spread again, but if it happens, expect a story that affects every city, town and community in the United States, and beyond.

Has your newsroom given any thought to this potential threat? Have you planned how you would cover such a pandemic in a way that serves the public but minimizes the risk to your staff members?

The Likelihood of an Outbreak

The most significant threat of an influenza pandemic today involves the dreaded, highly pathogenic, Avian Influenza A (H5N1) viruses, already widespread in birds, says Dr. Tim Uyeki, a medical epidemiologist with the Influenza Division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). So far, H5N1 viruses do not appear to have the ability to spread from person-to-person in a sustained manner, Dr. Uyeki says. Most humans who have acquired the infection have caught the virus through contact with sick and dead poultry (about 280 people have become infected since 2003, according to the World Health Organization).

If the virus mutates in such a way that it can be transmitted from one human to another, the outbreak could spread quickly. A person could be infected with the virus for two to three days before symptoms appear, he says. That's enough time for that person to come in contact with many family and friends in their immediate area, or hop on a plane and unknowingly spread it to many corners of the world.

It could happen in thousands of communities at once, says Suzy DeFrancis, assistant secretary for public affairs for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

Develop a Plan

Don't blow off the possibility that it could spread to staff at your station.

It's really alarming, says Mike Reilly, vice president and director of corporate affairs for WBBH-TV and WZVN-TV in Ft. Myers, FL.

Give extra emphasis to his concern since Reilly and his staff dealt with seven hurricanes in the past three seasons. Five of the seven storms prompted combing staffs, working 12-hour shifts and airing commercial-free broadcasting until the threats ended.

If someone like Reilly, who has significant experience with natural disasters, can be alarmed about the threat of pandemic flu, it should signal the rest of us to sit up and take notice.

Reilly's staff members will use their natural disaster protocols to fall back on in the event of a pandemic flu. On the other hand, managers at Cox Broadcasting are creating new policies that are specific to a flu outbreak.

The possibility of a pandemic is a high priority with Cox. The company is in the process of developing a plan, though it's not yet complete, says Chris Camp, news director of WSB-AM in Atlanta. “Funny you should ask about this, as the pandemic issue was touched on at a department head meeting just yesterday.

This isn't the case everywhere. We haven't been talking about it, but it would behoove us to think about it, says Kim Fatica, operations manager of WOIO-TV in Cleveland.

Officials with HHS have been traveling throughout the country meeting with media representatives and emergency responders simulating how to deal with an outbreak, to get more news managers to think ahead. Emergency personnel and government agencies would rely heavily on the broadcast media to disseminate information in an outbreak.Communication is the heart of all our efforts, DeFrancis says.

Prepare Internally

While many modern newsrooms have had to face the challenge of reporting through crisis, including terrorist attacks, hurricanes and tornadoes, HHS officials want news managers to think about how covering pandemic flu would be different.

Consider that, theoretically, the virus could survive on keyboards, telephones and other office equipment for a few hours after coming in contact with an infected person. Consider that story coverage could expose reporters and technicians to a potentially life-threatening virus, which could then spread to their family members as well. Think about how many people on your staff would need to take care of others in their households who become sick.

To get an idea of the potential disruption, ask yourself: What would I do if 40 percent of my staff didn't show up for work for two weeks? How would we continue to broadcast, providing life-saving information to listeners and viewers for an extended period of time?

Scientists say they can't identify risk groups for severe and fatal infection, but believe infants, the elderly, pregnant women and people with chronic medical conditions are at risk. But having a young, healthy staff may not make your newsroom immune; the CDC estimates that during the 1918 pandemic, nearly half of the flu-related deaths were young adults 20 to 40 years old (a phenomenon unique to that pandemic year).

There are things you can do around the office to keep germs from spreading, including:

• encourage/require sick people to stay home;

• develop ways for employees to telecommute;

• buy N95 respirators (a special type of mask often sold at home improvement stores in the paint department) and give them to reporters and crews going to cover the story onsite at hospitals or other care facilities;

• stockpile antiviral medications such as Tamiflu, if available;

• encourage your staff members to get vaccinated if and when one becomes available;

• and keep alcohol-based, waterless hand cleaners readily available in the newsroom, using similar, alcohol-based wipes to disinfect keyboards, telephones and other commonly used equipment.

Cover the Story

Using whatever healthy staff you have available during a pandemic, you must turn your energy to the delicate balance between causing panic and downplaying the seriousness of a pandemic too much, a huge responsibility for radio and TV news departments.

Broadcasters could save lives and mitigate the disease, DeFrancis says.

If they haven't already, newsrooms should develop sources at medical facilities, emergency management agencies and major utilities and ask for information about their response plans.

Expect medical, emergency and utility sources to be overrun with patient and customer needs during a flu outbreak, so meet with representatives now to develop a working agreement before everyone gets overwhelmed with requests. Negotiate information releases to coincide with news programs. Develop primary and secondary contacts with organizations, complete with work, cell and home phone numbers. Let organizations know that your station could help reduce their workloads by supplying much needed information.

At KPHO-TV in Phoenix, news director Tom Bell and his staff started their planning by looking at the big picture.

“Our planning to this point has been focused on understanding how clearly Arizona plans to respond, Bell says. We know the players and the plan.

It's also important to check in with other services people rely on for everyday needs, including schools, mass transit systems, grocery stores or daycare facilities and ask about their specific plans. Produce stories now about emergency plans and air them to inform your audiences that officials have thought about the possible threat.

You might find some planning and non-planning surprises. Don't assume cities have plans and that rural areas don't. Viewers and listeners should feel comforted if a detailed plan has been developed, so show and tell them. You could stimulate organizations to develop plans, if they haven't already. Keep stories readily available for use during an outbreak.

The heightened concern for personal safety makes the broadcast media's role even more important. People will need accurate information and scientists will need time to investigate possible outbreaks.

There may be a lag time to verify what we know, DeFrancis says.

Even though it's hard to be patient in a 24-hour news cycle, resist the temptation to report unconfirmed information.

Expect to hear rumors on blogs and almost everywhere else, DeFrancis says. Please look to the science experts for the facts.

Check with officials at HHS to see if they have PSAs available for radio and TV in the event of an outbreak.

Possible Leads During a Pandemic

If the flu outbreak is a rock that has been thrown on a pond, some of the ripples that rock creates will be equally large stories for your listeners and viewers.

Preparedness. Mass interruptions of essential services could happen throughout the country. HHS strongly suggests people have two weeks of food, water and medications stored in their homes (or businesses). In a worst case scenario, people won't want to go to public places, such as grocery stores, for fear of catching the infection. Additionally, stores might run out of essentials (food suppliers may not have people to make deliveries) or the stores themselves may not have enough personnel to stay open.

Societal disruptions. Health officials will encourage quarantine in the event of a major pandemic f lu outbreak, or social distancing, asking people to avoid public gatherings and minimize interactions with groups of people. Expect school closures and other such public events to be cancelled. That may also affect public transportation services, etc.

The strain on health care. HHS planners refer to the severe 1918 pandemic as a harrowing benchmark. Of the estimated 90 million people infected in the United States, almost 10 million required hospitalization; almost 1.5 million received intensive care unit (ICU) treatment; and almost 750,000 required a mechanical ventilator to survive. Even with the medical advancements made in the past 89 years, a new virus could place an incredible strain on care facilities. Many hospitals have already rented additional ventilators and bought a newer, disposal type in anticipation of an outbreak.

The economy. A press release from Trust for America's Health, a non-prof it, non-partisan organization dedicated to working to make disease prevention a national priority, paints a grim economic picture if a 1918-like pandemic repeats itself. The organization, using economic modeling, estimates a $683 billion loss in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) causing the second worst recession in the U.S. since World War II.� While important government preparedness efforts focusing mainly on medical and public health strategies are underway, efforts to prepare for the possible economic ramif ications have been seriously inadequate, says Jeff Levi, executive director of the group. The same economic model predicts an 80 percent decline in tourism, entertainment and food services, with agriculture, construction, retail trade, f inance and insurance experiencing a 10 percent loss in demand.

Joe Courson is a retired University of Georgia faculty member who continues to learn all he can about our craft.

Originally published in the May 2007 issue of Communicator. All rights reserved.

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